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Consideration of the half-year report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on elections in Africa

Date | 25 January 2026

Tomorrow (26 January), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1327th Session to consider the mid-year report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on elections in Africa, covering the period between July and December 2025.

Following the opening statement of the Chairperson of the PSC for the month, Jean-Léon Ngandu Ilunga, Permanent Representative of the Democratic Republic of Congo to the AU, Bankole Adeoye, the Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), is expected to present the report. Statements are also expected from the representatives of Member States that organised elections during the reporting period.

As per the PSC’s decision from its 424th session in March 2014, which mandates periodic updates on African electoral developments, the Chairperson presents a mid-year elections report. The previous update was delivered during the 1288th PSC session on 4 July, 2025 and covered electoral activities from January to June 2025. Tomorrow’s briefing will similarly provide accounts of elections conducted from July to December 2025, covering elections held in Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Malawi, the Seychelles, Somalia, and Tanzania, while also outlining the electoral calendar for the first half of 2026.

Across the second half of 2025, governance trends across Africa reflected a complex and often uneven interplay between electoral continuity, democratic backsliding, and institutional resilience. A recurring pattern was the consolidation of executive power through elections held in constrained political environments, frequently following constitutional changes that weakened term limits or enabled incumbents or transitional authorities to entrench themselves. Many of these polls were marked by low or moderate voter turnout, opposition boycotts or exclusions, and contested credibility, even where regional and continental observation missions officially endorsed peaceful conduct, highlighting a growing gap between formal electoral procedures and substantive democratic competition. At the same time, episodes of acute instability, most notably the military interruption of elections in Guinea-Bissau, underscored the continued fragility of civilian rule in some contexts, prompting robust but reactive responses from regional bodies. In contrast, a smaller number of cases demonstrated democratic resilience through competitive elections, peaceful concessions, and credible alternation of power.

In the aftermath of Cameroon’s contested 12 October 2025 presidential election, President Paul Biya was re-elected to an eighth term amid heightened political tensions. Post-election protests were reported in parts of the country, with security forces intervening to restore order, resulting in casualties. The Constitutional Council confirmed Biya’s victory with 53.7% of the vote, a result rejected by opposition candidate Issa Tchiroma Bakary, who claimed victory and accused authorities of systematic manipulation. The AU deployed an election observer mission led by Bernard Makuza, former Prime Minister and former President of the Senate of the Republic of Rwanda, composed of 40 short-term observers (STOs). Later, a joint statement from the AU and the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)indicated that ‘the election was conducted peacefully, with respect for democratic values and citizen participation.’ They also noted low turnout and urged stakeholders to channel grievances through legal mechanisms.

In the Central African Republic’s 28 December 2025 presidential election, the incumbent President Faustin-Archange Touadéra secured a third term, garnering approximately 76.15 % of the vote according to provisional results from the National Elections Authority, which will be officially validated by the Constitutional Court. Touadéra’s victory follows a controversial 2023 constitutional referendum that abolished presidential term limits and extended term lengths, enabling him to run again and entrench his decade-long rule. The major opposition coalition boycotted the vote, decrying an unequal political environment and unfair conditions, and some challengers have alleged electoral malpractice and fraud. Voter turnout was at around 52%, reflecting mixed public engagement amid ongoing instability, even as the election technically proceeded peacefully and without widespread unrest reported.

The 2025 electoral cycle in Côte d’Ivoire opened with the presidential election on 25 October, followed by legislative polls on 27 December. According to the electoral commission, President Alassane Ouattara won decisively with 89.8% of the vote, while businessman Jean-Louis Billon trailed at 3.09%. Voter turnout stood at 50.1%, underscoring limited public participation. At the invitation of Ivorian authorities, the AU and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) deployed a joint Election Observation Mission (EOM) of more than 250 observers across the country, reflecting strong regional engagement. Their preliminary report highlighted candidate exclusions, weak opposition presence, accessibility challenges, and logistical shortcomings. For the December legislative elections, the AU dispatched a separate mission of 31 observers to assess preparations, voting operations, and the post-election environment.

In Egypt, following the August senate elections, parliamentary elections were conducted in multiple phases starting in November, producing a legislature overwhelmingly aligned with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. His political bloc secured the super-majority required to advance constitutional amendments, consolidating executive dominance. Overall turnout and participation levels fluctuated.

The 23 November 2025 general elections in Guinea-Bissau, intended to produce a legitimate presidential and legislative outcome in a country long beset by political fragility, were abruptly upended when military forces seized power on 26 November, a day before provisional results were to be announced. Both incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and opposition candidate Fernando Dias da Costa had claimed victory prior to the official tally, but the military takeover involved storming the National Electoral Commission’s offices, the seizure and destruction of ballots, tally sheets and servers, and suspension of the entire electoral process, making completion of the vote effectively impossible. Major-General Horta Inta-A Na Man was installed as transitional president and appointed a new cabinet, drawing accusations from opposition figures and observers that the coup was either staged or exploited to forestall the constitutional transfer of power and preserve entrenched elite interests. In response, ECOWAS convened an extraordinary summit on 27 November, condemned the coup, suspended Guinea-Bissau, rejected any arrangements undermining the electoral process, and demanded the immediate declaration of the 23 November election results, while mandating a high-level mediation mission led by Sierra Leone’s President Julius Maada Bio. The PSC followed on 28 November by also suspending Guinea-Bissau, strongly condemning the coup, and calling for the completion of the electoral process and inauguration of the winner during its 1315th session. The Council also tasked the AU Commission Chairperson to create an inclusive AU Monitoring Mechanism, in collaboration with ECOWAS and stakeholders, to monitor the situation, especially the implementation of ECOWAS and PSC decisions.

In the 28 December 2025 presidential election in Guinea, held under a new constitution that followed the 2021 military coup, junta leader Mamady Doumbouya secured a landslide victory with 86.72 % of the vote and was later sworn in as president, marking the end of the formal transitional period since he seized power. AU observers were deployed to monitor the campaign and voting phases, with a mission arriving in mid-December and issuing preliminary statements that attested that the election took place in a peaceful, orderly, and credible environment. However, the electoral trajectory, notably a constitutional referendum earlier in 2025 that amended the legal framework to allow members of the ruling military authorities to stand as candidates, has deepened concerns about compliance with the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG) Article 25(4), which seeks to restrict participation of those who have seized power through unconstitutional means.

In Malawi’s 16 September 2025 general elections, former President Peter Mutharika won a clear victory over incumbent President Lazarus Chakwera, securing 56.8 % of the vote to Chakwera’s 33%, with turnout around 76% of registered voters, prompting a peaceful concession by Chakwera and a commitment to a smooth transfer of power. The elections were observed by a joint African Union–COMESA Election Observation Mission and a SADC Electoral Observation Mission, both deployed at the invitation of Malawi’s government to assess compliance with national, regional, and international democratic standards, and to engage with key electoral stakeholders, including the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC), political parties, civil society and media. Preliminary observation reports highlighted a generally peaceful and orderly process, with long queues and broad voter participation, though technical issues such as late polling station openings and structural challenges (e.g., biometric machine failures and the need for improved dispute resolution timelines) were noted, pointing to areas for future reform. This election reinforced Malawi’s democratic resilience and provided lessons for Africa on peaceful leadership alternation and the significance of robust electoral frameworks.

In the 2025 Seychelles general and presidential elections, the multi-stage process began with presidential and National Assembly polls on 25–27 September 2025, observed by a Joint AU and COMESA Election Observation Mission following an invitation from the Government and Electoral Commission; the mission engaged with key stakeholders across political, media, civic and institutional spheres to assess compliance with continental democratic standards enshrined in ACDEG and related instruments. According to the Joint Preliminary Report of the Joint mission, the candidate secured an outright majority in the first round, triggering a run-off held from 9 -11 October 2025 between opposition leader Patrick Herminie of the United Seychelles party and incumbent President Wavel Ramkalawan of Linyon Demokratik Seselwa. Herminie won the run-off with 52.7% of the vote to Ramkalawan’s 47.3%, returning his party to executive leadership and reversing the 2020 result that had first brought Ramkalawan to office. Observers and regional bodies, including SADC, noted the generally peaceful, orderly and professionally managed electoral environment.

In Gabon, the 27 September (first round) and 11 October (second round) parliamentary elections consolidated President Brice Oligui Nguema’s political dominance following his April presidential win, with his newly formed Democratic Union of Builders (UDB) securing a decisive majority in the National Assembly, winning around 101–102 out of 145 seats and relegating the long-dominant Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG) to a distant second, alongside a handful of smaller parties and independents. According to International IDEA’s Global State of Democracy Tracker, while the elections were largely peaceful and marked a significant shift in Gabon’s post-coup political landscape, they were also marred by irregularities, including missing ballots and annulments in several constituencies.

In Tanzania, the general elections held on 29 October 2025 produced an overwhelmingly one-sided result with President Samia Suluhu Hassan declared the winner on over 98% of the vote, but they were marred by deep controversy, violent unrest, and allegations of severe democratic deficits. The African Union Election Observation Mission’s preliminary report indicated that the elections “did not comply with AU principles, normative frameworks, and other international obligations and standards for democratic elections”, noting a restricted political environment, opposition boycotts and exclusions, internet shutdowns, outbreaks of deadly protests, and significant procedural irregularities that compromised electoral integrity and peaceful acceptance of results. On the other hand, the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, H.E. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, issued a public statement congratulating President Suluhu on her victory while expressing regret at the loss of life in post-election protests and emphasising respect for human rights and the rule of law.

The period also marked a pivotal shift in Somalia’s electoral framework with the introduction of direct municipal elections. Somalia’s municipal elections held on 25 December 2025 in Mogadishu’s Banadir region introduced direct, one-person-one-vote polling for the first time in nearly six decades, a major departure from the indirect, clan-based model used since 1991 and direct voting last seen in 1969. The polls, involving some 1,604 candidates competing for 390 council seats and more than 500,000 registered voters, were widely framed by authorities and local observers as a critical first step toward restoring universal suffrage and laying the groundwork for nationwide direct elections scheduled for 2026, and showcased significant logistical and security efforts amid ongoing instability and insurgent threats. While the exercise proceeded under heightened security and with heavy public interest, it was also shadowed by political tensions, including opposition boycotts and concerns about inclusivity and turnout.

Furthermore, the report will highlight elections scheduled between January and June 2026. The majority of elections planned for 2026 will take place in the first half of the year, with Benin, Cape Verde, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Uganda holding polls during this period.

Uganda opened Africa’s 2026 election cycle with a presidential poll on 15 January. The presidential election saw long-time incumbent President Yoweri Museveni extend his rule into a seventh term, securing approximately 71.6 % of the vote against opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine), who received about 24.7 %, in a contest marked by significant controversy and political tension. Official results indicated a 52.5 % voter turnout, the lowest since the return to multiparty politics. The joint preliminary statement of The African Union – Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development Election Observation Mission indicated that Uganda’s elections proved more peaceful than the 2021 election, earning praise for voter patience, professional staff, and transparent counting, though concerns persisted over military involvement, internet shutdowns, opposition arrests, media bias, high fees excluding marginalized groups, Electoral Commission independence issues, and Election Day delays.

The Republic of Congo is scheduled to hold its presidential election on 22 March 2026, with incumbent President Denis Sassou Nguesso officially nominated by the ruling Congolese Labour Party (PCT) to run for another term alongside candidates from opposition parties.

The 2026 presidential election in Djibouti is scheduled to take place by April 2026, with incumbent President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, who has governed the country since 1999, formally nominated by the ruling Rassemblement Populaire pour le Progrès (RPP) to seek a sixth term following a constitutional amendment in late 2025 that removed the presidential age limit, allowing the 77-year-old leader to run again.

The 7th general election in Ethiopia is scheduled to be held on 1 June 2026, with the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) confirming the official election timetable, including candidate registration and campaigning periods ahead of polling day. A wide range of political parties are expected to contest seats in the House of Peoples’ Representatives, including the ruling Prosperity Party and several opposition and regional parties participating with their candidates across constituencies.

The national election process in Somalia is expected to take place in June 2026 under a newly adopted electoral framework aimed at moving toward universal suffrage and direct elections after decades of indirect, clan-based vote systems. Preparatory local polls and voter registration efforts were conducted in late 2025 as part of this transition, although there remains significant political disagreement over the roadmap and mechanisms for the upcoming national vote. Several political figures, including incumbent President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and other declared or prospective contenders such as Abdi Farah Shirdon, are positioning themselves for the upcoming presidential race amid a fractured political landscape.

In Benin, President Patrice Talon steps down in line with constitutional term limits, breaking with the regional trend of incumbents extending their rule. The 2026 presidential election in Benin is set for 12 April 2026, with former finance minister Romuald Wadagni, endorsed by outgoing President Talon, emerging as a leading candidate after the ruling coalition cleared the required sponsorship thresholds. On 11 January 2026, parliamentary and local elections were held, in which the ruling Progressive Union for Renewal and the Republican Bloc together won all 109 seats in the National Assembly under a new 20 % threshold that left the main opposition without representation. These votes followed a failed coup attempt on 7 December 2025, when a small group of soldiers briefly announced the overthrow of the government but were quickly contained by loyal forces with regional support.

The Republic of Cabo Verde will hold its legislative elections on 17 May 2026 and its presidential election on 15 November 2026, with a possible second round for the presidency on 29 November if no candidate wins an outright majority. President José Maria Neves announced the dates after consultations with political parties and the National Elections Commission, and key parties preparing to contest include the ruling Movement for Democracy (MpD) and opposition parties such as the African Party for the Independence of Cape Verde (PAICV) and the Independent and Democratic Cape-Verdean Union (UCID).

The expected outcome is a communiqué. The PSC may take note of the Chairperson’s elections report, covering electoral developments from July to December 2025 and the electoral calendar for the first half of 2026. The PSC may commend Member States where elections were conducted peacefully and led to credible outcomes, while encouraging those facing post-electoral tensions or transitions to resolve disputes through constitutional and legal mechanisms. The Council may reiterate its condemnation of unconstitutional changes of government, and call for the restoration and completion of disrupted electoral processes in line with AU norms. It may further underscore the importance of aligning national electoral frameworks with the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance, particularly concerning term limits, inclusivity, and the participation of transitional authorities. The PSC may encourage Member States to invite AU election observation missions in a timely manner, undertake necessary electoral and institutional reforms, ensure the neutrality of security forces, and uphold restraint and responsibility among all stakeholders to promote peaceful, credible, and inclusive elections across the continent.

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Consideration of the AU Commission Report on Elections in Africa for the Period of Jan – June 2025

Date | 3 July 2025

Tomorrow (4 July), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1288th Session to consider the mid-year report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on elections in Africa, covering the period between January and June 2025.

Following the opening statement of the Chairperson of the PSC for the month, Rebecca Otengo, Permanent Representative of Uganda to the AU, Bankole Adeoye, the Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), is expected to present the report. Statements are also expected from the representatives of Member States that organised elections during the reporting period.

As per the PSC’s decision from its 424th session in March 2014, which mandates periodic updates on African electoral developments, the Chairperson presents a mid-year elections report. The previous update was delivered during the 1255th PSC session on January 24, 2025, and covered electoral activities from July to December 2024. Tomorrow’s briefing will similarly provide accounts of elections conducted from January to June 2025 – covering elections held in Burundi, Comoros and Gabon –while also outlining the electoral calendar for the second half of 2025.

The parliamentary elections held in Burundi on 5 June resulted in a sweeping victory for the ruling National Council for the Defence of Democracy-Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) party, which secured all 100 contested seats in the national assembly with 96.5% of the vote. The AU deployed an Election Observation Mission led by Vincent Meriton, former Vice President of Seychelles, comprising 30 observers. In its preliminary report, the mission noted that the elections occurred in a generally stable socio-political and peaceful security environment. However, the mission also reported that some political parties and candidates expressed concerns about biased coverage by public media, alleging it disproportionately favoured the ruling party. Operational challenges were also observed, including complaints from voters in certain areas who did not receive their voter cards. Additionally, opposition parties criticised the elections as undemocratic, citing the systematic harassment and exclusion of opposition groups, particularly the National Congress for Liberty (CNL).

Similarly, the Comoros held parliamentary elections on 12 January. According to the Independent National Election Commission, the ruling Convention for the Renewal of the Comoros (CRC), led by President Azali Assoumani, won a strong majority, securing 28 out of 33 seats. However, several opposition parties rejected the results, citing widespread irregularities and a lack of transparency. These concerns prompted the Supreme Court to annul the outcomes in four constituencies, leading to reruns held later in January. Voter turnout stood at 66.3%, slightly lower than the 70.9% recorded in the 2020 election.

On 12 April 2025, Gabon held a presidential election in which General Brice Oligui Nguema, the interim president and leader of the August 2023 military coup that ousted President Ali Bongo, was a candidate. He was later declared the winner, securing over 90 % of the vote. Voter turnout reached 70.4%, a significant rise compared to the 56.65% recorded in the disputed August 2023 elections.

The AU deployed an Election Observation Mission to Gabon led by Trovoada Patrice, Former Prime Minister of São Tomé and Príncipe, and supported by Domitien Ndayizeye, former President of Burundi and member of the AU Panel of the Wise. Following the election, during its 1277th session, the PSC welcomed the ‘successful’ conduct of the election without addressing the lack of compliance with Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG). As highlighted in an analysis featured on Amani Africa’s Ideas Indaba, the PSC’s failure to express its continuous commitment to Article 25(4) while recognising the election outcome in Gabon as marking the return of constitutional order can be interpreted by militaries across the continent that ‘a coup has once again become a viable avenue for ascending to power with the possibility of it being recognised by the AU following the coup’s legitimisation through elections.’ Not surprisingly, the AU appears to be on a path to accord Guinea the same treatment that it accorded Gabon, deepening concerns about the political viability and legitimacy of AU’s norm on non-eligibility of perpetrators of coups, as provided for in Article 25(4) of ACDEG.

African election calendar 2025

Furthermore, the report is also expected to highlight eleven upcoming elections scheduled between July and December 2025, including those in Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Malawi, the Seychelles, Somalia, and Tanzania.

Cameroon’s presidential election on October 5 takes place amid the prospect of President Paul Biya seeking an unprecedented eighth term, having held power since 1982. Biya, aged 92, remains the longest-serving African president, enabled by a 2008 constitutional amendment removing term limits.

The Central African Republic’s (CAR) upcoming elections in December 2025—covering presidential, legislative, and local levels—are set to take place in a politically and security-fragile environment. President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, who is eligible to run again after a controversial 2023 constitutional referendum that eliminated presidential term limits, remains a central figure amid ongoing concerns over democratic backsliding. According to a recent press release by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the National Elections Authority (ANE) is facing serious institutional and operational challenges that threaten the timely and credible organisation of the elections. These include internal dysfunction, funding gaps, delays in finalising the electoral roll, and logistical setbacks. In response, the UN is calling for urgent reforms to the electoral authority and the allocation of adequate resources to safeguard the integrity of the elections.

Côte d’Ivoire’s upcoming presidential election in October 2025 is unfolding in a tense and uncertain political climate, with President Alassane Ouattara facing multiple challengers. Recent reports indicate that the electoral landscape is marred by the exclusion of major opposition figures through legal and administrative means. Tidjane Thiam, leader of the main opposition party (PDCI), was removed from the voter roll due to a court ruling that his past French citizenship invalidated his Ivorian nationality, despite his recent renunciation of his French citizenship. Similarly, former President Laurent Gbagbo, Charles Blé Goudé, and exiled former Prime Minister Guillaume Soro remain barred from running in the elections. The Independent Electoral Commission has confirmed that the voter list will not be revised ahead of the October 25 presidential election, effectively excluding these key opposition leaders from participation. Due to these recent developments, Ivorians are taking to the streets to rally for banned opposition figures.

Guinea-Bissau’s presidential and legislative elections, initially scheduled for late 2024, were postponed by President Umaro Sissoco Embaló in November 2024, citing logistical and financial hurdles—a decision that, in the context of the unilateral dissolution of parliament, occasioned a constitutional crisis, triggering criticism from the opposition as unconstitutional. And, when Embaló’s term in office expired in February 2025, he got the Supreme Court extending it to September 2025. Amid constitutional and democratic backsliding and rising contestation by the opposition of Embaló’s legitimacy and delays in elections, a new election date was set for 23 November 2025, following controversial consultations.

Guinea’s military junta, led by General Mamadi Doumbouya, has rescheduled presidential and legislative elections for December 2025, following a constitutional referendum planned for September. This comes after missing the initial December 2024 transition deadline. A new Directorate General of Elections has been established to oversee the process, but the transition plan is facing criticism over transparency, funding, and delays. Concerns persist about the credibility of the elections, as the junta has dissolved over 50 political parties, restricted media, and curtailed political freedoms. The tense political climate and continued repression have fueled opposition protests and scepticism about the inclusiveness of the upcoming elections.

Malawi’s general elections, set for 16 September 2025, are expected to be highly competitive, featuring presidential, parliamentary, and local government races. This will be the second election held under the 50+1 majority system, introduced after the annulment of the 2019 polls. Incumbent President Lazarus Chakwera is seeking re-election but faces strong challenges from former presidents Peter Mutharika and Joyce Banda. Over 7 million voters have registered, with women making up 57% of the electorate. The Malawi Electoral Commission has launched voter registration and preparations under the theme ‘Promoting Democratic Leadership Through Your Vote.’ The African Union has deployed Technical Assistance Missions and a Pre-election Assessment Mission to monitor the process and provide support.

Seychelles’ presidential and legislative elections are scheduled for 27 September, pending final approval of a constitutional amendment establishing fixed election dates. President Wavel Ramkalawan, who won a historic victory in 2020, ending four decades of dominance by the United Seychelles party, is running for a second term with Vice President Ahmed Afif as his running mate. Ramkalawan’s main challenger is Dr. Patrick Herminie of United Seychelles.

Tanzania’s upcoming presidential and legislative elections in October 2025 are expected to be dominated by the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party, with President Samia Suluhu Hassan positioned as the clear frontrunner. CCM has officially nominated Hassan for the Union presidency and Hussein Ali Mwinyi for the Zanzibar presidency. The main opposition party, CHADEMA, led by Tundu Lissu, has been barred from the race after refusing to sign a mandatory electoral code of conduct, effectively removing a major challenger. While smaller parties such as ACT-Wazalendo remain in the race, CCM faces minimal opposition. In preparation for the elections, the African Union conducted a pre-election assessment mission in June 2025 to evaluate Tanzania’s institutional readiness, the political climate, and efforts to promote women’s political participation.

Additionally, legislative and local elections are scheduled to be held in Gabon on 27 September and 11 October. Meanwhile, Egypt’s parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place from July 3 to July 10. Although specific dates have not yet been announced, Somalia is also expected to hold parliamentary elections for both federal parliament representatives and state legislatures later this year.

The Chairperson’s report is also expected to highlight key governance trends in Africa. As the January 2025 Monthly digest on the PSC noted, the trend is characterised by a mix of some democratic progress and increasing poor quality of and public confidence in elections. Despite elections becoming common, concerns remain over democratic backsliding, where incumbents manipulate institutions to maintain power, as the examples of Guinea-Bissau or Côte d’Ivoire show. Additionally, upcoming elections in countries such as Guinea, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, and the CAR will pose significant tests to the resilience of national institutions and the AU’s capacity to engage in preventive diplomacy amid heightened security and political tensions.

The expected outcome is a communiqué. The PSC may commend Member States for the peaceful and transparent conduct of elections held between January and June 2025. It may particularly welcome the cooperation extended by these Member States to AU Election Observation Missions and encourage the full implementation of recommendations aimed at deepening democratic gains. In line with its previous decisions, the PSC may acknowledge the progress made by Gabon in transitioning toward a constitutional order. Concerning countries undergoing transition, the Council is expected to encourage them to work closely with the AU Commission. In this regard, the PSC may urge the Commission to continue extending its support to transitional countries in line with relevant AU instruments. In light of upcoming elections during the second half of 2025, the PSC may encourage Member States to invite AU observers, undertake necessary electoral reforms, and uphold national and continental legal frameworks governing elections. It may emphasise the importance of restraint and responsibility among all stakeholders to ensure peaceful, credible, and inclusive electoral processes.

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Consideration of the half-year Report of the Chairperson of the commission on elections in Africa: July to December 2024 and Outlook for 2025

Date | 23 January 2025

Tomorrow (24 January), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1255th session to consider the half-year report of the AU Commission on elections in Africa, covering the period between July and December 2024.

Following the opening statement of the Chairperson of the PSC for the month of January, Ennio Maes, Permanent Representative of Cote D’Ivoire, Bankole Adeoye, the Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), is expected to present the report. Statements are also expected from the representatives of Member States that organised elections during the reporting period and from the representatives of the Regional Economic Communities/Regional Mechanisms (RECs/RMs) that observed the elections.

The chairperson’s mid-year report on elections in Africa aligns with the PSC’s 424th session decision to receive quarterly briefings on national elections in Africa. Tomorrow’s session builds on the updates provided during the 1224th session on elections that were conducted during the first half of 2024. It will review the outcomes of elections held between July and December 2024, discuss broader trends in electoral governance across the continent and provide a snapshot of elections planned for the first half of 2025.

Dubbed an ‘election super year’, 2024 witnessed significant electoral activities in Africa, with at least 17 AU Member States conducting elections. In the second half of 2024, from July – December alone, 11 Member States organised presidential and parliamentary elections, namely: Algeria, Rwanda, Tunisia, Mozambique, Botswana, Mauritius, Gabon, Senegal, Namibia, Ghana and Chad. While the AU deployed Election Observation Missions (AUEOMs) that were notable for their inclusivity, with significant representation of women and youth among the observers to nine of these Member States, no missions were deployed to the Republics of Algeria and the parliamentary elections in Chad as the AU did not receive invitations from these Member States. The lack of such invitations risks setting a precedent that undermines AU missions and potentially weakening collective efforts to ensure transparent and credible elections on the continent.

The comprehensive electoral support extended by the AU to Member States includes deploying Election Observation Missions comprising diverse teams of short-term observers, technical experts, and representatives from civil society, youth and women’s organisations. The AU conducts pre-election and needs assessment missions to evaluate political environments stakeholder preparedness, and technical gaps. Capacity-building initiatives, such as training electoral experts and publishing reports on best practices, enhance institutional effectiveness. The AU also promotes stakeholder engagement, preventive diplomacy, and electoral reform advocacy to foster peaceful and inclusive elections. Financial and logistical support includes resources for Election Management Bodies (EMBs) and advocating state funding for equitable media coverage. Additionally, the AU emphasises post-election stability through legal dispute mechanisms and follow-ups to ensure adherence to democratic principles.

While the AUEOMs highlighted constructive roles played by political parties and EMBs in fostering inclusivity and transparency, challenges such as increased voter abstention in some member states and security concerns in areas like Mozambique were noted.

The Republic of Rwanda held its General Elections from 14 to 16 July 2024, electing a President and representatives for the Chamber of Deputies. The elections reaffirmed Paul Kagame’s hold on power with a landslide victory of 99.18% of the votes.

On 6 October, Tunisia held its first presidential election under the 2022 constitution, with Kaïs Saïed reelected in the first round with 90.69% of the votes. Despite this decisive victory, the election was marked by the lowest voter turnout since the 2011 revolution, 28.7%. The AUEOM highlighted the importance of broader voter engagement in future elections. The AU’s deployment of observers despite the deteriorating political environment, including the arrest of opposition figures and activists and a last-minute change to the electoral law that excluded judicial oversight of electoral violations, was criticised for legitimising Tunisia’s democratic backsliding.

Mozambique’s general elections, held on 9 October, underscored significant challenges in a country already grappling with security concerns in its northern provinces. Daniel Chapo of the incumbent FRELIMO secured 65.17% of the vote, extending the party’s decades-long dominance. However, the elections were marred by allegations of vote rigging, ballot box stuffing, and intimidation. The electoral environment was further marred by post-election violence, including politically motivated assassinations and a deadly crackdown on protests. The Constitutional Council’s decision to uphold the election results fueled further instability, and on 25 December, the AUC Chairperson issued a statement urging the ‘[g]overnment and all the national political and social actors to seek a peaceful solution to resolving the current crisis to avoid further loss of life’. A subsequent SADC summit, ‘mandated the SADC Panel of Elders supported by the Ministerial Committee of the Organ (MCO) Troika Member States, namely Malawi, Zambia and the United Republic of Tanzania, and the SADC Secretariat, to engage with the Government of Mozambique and key leaders of the opposition on the post-election environment in Mozambique, and report to the Chairperson of the SADC Organ by 15 January 2025.’ The summit also directed the Inter-state Defence and Security Committee to ‘propose measures to protect the regional trade routes, humanitarian corridors, and energy supplies while finding solutions to the political and security challenges in the Republic of Mozambique.’

The 30 October general elections in Botswana marked a historic victory for the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), ending the Botswana Democratic Party’s (BDP) decades-long dominance. The AU commended Botswana for its peaceful political transition and high voter turnout of 81.42%. The concession of defeat by the BDP and the peaceful transfer of power were seen as positive developments.

Mauritius also held National Assembly elections on 10 November, that saw the incumbent conceding peacefully with the Alliance for Change securing a landslide victory. The elections, characterised by a voter turnout of 77.82%, were praised for their transparency and adherence to international standards.

Gabon conducted a constitutional referendum on 16 November, paving the way for a return to democratic order following the 2023 coup d’état. The referendum, which passed with 91.64% voting in favour, was a critical step towards the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for August 2025. While the Chairperson of the AU Commission has applauded it as an ‘important step on the restoration of democratic constitutional order’, the provisions in the newly approved constitution enable the junta leader’s potential candidacy in 2025, which is in contrast to Article 25 (4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance which prohibits perpetrators of unconstitutional change of government from running in elections that mark the formal end of governments installed by coups.

Senegal held early legislative elections on 17 November, resulting in a victory for the ruling PASTEF Party, which secured 130 seats. The peaceful and prompt acceptance of results by all parties displayed political maturity and minimised post-electoral tensions.

Namibia’s presidential and National Assembly election held on 27 November saw Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah of the ruling SWAPO elected as the country’s first female president. The elections were characterised by high voter turnout of 76.86% and peaceful conduct that further consolidated Namibia’s democratic credentials.

Ghana’s presidential and parliamentary elections on 7 December resulted in the return of John Dramani Mahama as president, with a 56.55% vote share. Ghana’s electoral process was widely regarded as exemplary, with strong institutional support and high voter confidence.

In addition to these reviews, tomorrow’s PSC session will likely examine trends in electoral governance and the importance of timely elections. The report also emphasises the need for sustained AU technical and financial support to EMBs and civil society organisations to strengthen Africa’s democratic processes.

Looking ahead, the session is expected to provide a snapshot of elections scheduled for the first half of 2025, including legislative elections in the Union of Comoros and Burundi. The AU’s readiness to deploy observation missions and technical support, contingent on Member State invitations, will be a focal point.

The expected outcome of tomorrow’s session is a communique. The PSC is expected to adopt the report of the chairperson of the Commission and may consider recommendations to address persistent challenges, including increasing voter engagement, ensuring timely elections, and bolstering AU mission resources to match the scale and scope of other international election observation efforts. The PSC may also congratulate the Member States that organised peaceful elections during the review period and express concern over the post-election violence in Mozambique and may also call on the Mozambican authorities, concerned opposition parties and members of the public to extend full cooperation to the efforts of the AU and SADC to find a peaceful resolution to the post-election crisis and violence.

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OPEN SESSION ON CONSTITUTIONALISM, DEMOCRACY AND GOVERNANCE https://amaniafrica-et.org/open-session-on-constitutionalism-democracy-and-governance/ https://amaniafrica-et.org/open-session-on-constitutionalism-democracy-and-governance/#respond Mon, 05 Aug 2024 07:32:52 +0000 https://amaniafrica-et.org/?p=19078 5 August 2024

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OPEN SESSION ON CONSTITUTIONALISM, DEMOCRACY AND GOVERNANCE

Date | 5 August 2024

Tomorrow (6 August), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to hold its 1226th open session on the theme of Constitutionalism, Democracy, and Governance.

Following opening remarks by the Permanent Representative of Botswana to the AU and Chairperson of the PSC for the month, Mr. Tebelelo A. Boang, the AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye, is expected to make a statement. The statement will be followed by a presentation by Professor Mpho Molomo, Political Advisor to the President of the Republic of Botswana and a statement by H.E. Mr. Parfait Onanga-Anyanga, Special Representative of the Secretary General of the United Nations to the African Union and Head of the United Nations Office to the African Union (UNOAU).

The theme of this session lies in the cross-section of the PSC mandate that combines security and democratic governance. Indeed, under Article 7(1)(m) the PSC is explicitly mandated to ‘follow up, within the framework of its conflict prevention responsibilities, the progress towards the promotion of democratic practices, good governance, the rule of law, protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms, respect for the sanctity of human life and international humanitarian law by member states’.

The last time the PSC convened a session on this theme was during its 1061st session. In that session, the PSC requested the AU Commission to undertake an in-depth analysis of the 2000 Lomé Declaration on unconstitutional changes of government (UCG) and the African Governance Architecture (AGA) with the aim to ensure that these frameworks and instruments respond appropriately to the challenges that the continent is currently facing and submit to the PSC for consideration. In addition, the PSC made two important decisions: convening a brainstorming seminar on UCG in Africa and reactivating the PSC Sub-Committee on Sanctions. As a follow-up to these decisions, two editions of the AU Reflection Forum on UCGs, also known as the Accra Forum, were held in Accra in March 2022 and 2024 to critically engage on the structural root causes of UCG in the continent and explore practical recommendations to address the phenomenon. It is also recalled that in May 2022, the Assembly of the AU convened its 16th extraordinary summit in Malabo, which adopted the Declaration on UCGs as well as terrorism in Africa.

There are at least three sets of issues that are of direct concern for tomorrow’s session and are deserving of attention during the session. The first of these concerns the approach of the PSC to the theme of the session and follow-up to its various engagements on the matter thus far. The second concerns a candid reflection on the state of constitutional rule and democratic governance on the continent. The third relates to the role of relevant AU governance instruments, institutions and processes.

In terms of the approach of the PSC to the theme of the session, despite the importance attached to the subject in the PSC Protocol as noted above, the PSC has not established a systematic approach to this dimension of its mandate. It is true that the PSC addresses various aspects of the theme of tomorrow’s session through sessions focusing on specific aspects of this theme as part of its annual indicative program of work or when it is crafted into the monthly program of work of the PSC. Accordingly, the PSC held sessions on ‘popular uprisings and its impact on peace and security’, ‘sanctions and enforcement capacities’, the AU sanctions regime, ‘African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance’, ‘promoting constitutionalism, democracy and inclusive governance to strengthen peace, security and stability in Africa’, ‘engagement between the PSC and the PRC sub-committee on human rights, democracy and governance’ and the regular ‘elections in Africa.’ Added to these are the consultative meetings with AU organs with human rights and governance mandates notably the one between the PSC and the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights and the briefings by an annual retreat with the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM).

Despite the richness that these engagements of the PSC highlight, they also illustrate that they reflect fragmentation and ad hocism. While some of the sessions such as the one on ‘elections in Africa’ have become regularised, the engagement of the PSC tends to be largely performative, lacking in critical and dynamic interrogation of the increasing disenchantment of the increasing number of Africans with elections. One way through which the PSC can institutionalise its engagement on constitutionalism, democracy and governance into a systematic approach is by integrating and addressing these sessions under a standing agenda dedicated to the review of and systematic reflections on the implementation of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance.   

In terms of follow-up on previous decisions of the PSC relevant to tomorrow’s session, of particular significance is the decision of the 1061st session of the PSC. It would be of interest for members of the PSC to get an update during tomorrow’s session on the decision of that session regarding the request for an in-depth analysis of the 2000 Lomé Declaration on unconstitutional changes of government (UCG) and the African Governance Architecture (AGA) with the aim to ensure that these frameworks and instruments respond appropriately to the challenges that the continent is currently facing.

With respect to the second set of issues of concern for tomorrow’s session, it would be fitting for the PSC to execute its mandate under Article 7(1) (m) of the PSC Protocol to reflect on the state of constitutionalism, democracy and good governance in Africa. In this respect, one overarching feature of the constitutional and democratisation landscape of the continent is the normative acceptance of regular elections, constitutional systems, the role of media and civil society at national levels and the endorsement of constitutional and democratic norms at the level of the AU. The other, perhaps most significant, feature is the growing popular support and demand for an accountable, corruption-free responsive system of governance. The large number of elections being held this year reflects that elections are widely accepted in the political practice of African states irrespective of the quality of democratic credentials of these states.

Elections in 2024

Notwithstanding these positive dimensions of the democratic governance and constitutional rule landscape of the continent, in the course of the past several years, Africa has witnessed a worrying escalation in democratic backsliding and challenges to constitutional rule and good governance. One notable manifestation of this democratic backsliding relates to elections. While it has become common for AU member states to hold elections and to do so regularly, free, fair, credible and transparent elections are very few and far in between on the continent. The Mo Ibrahim Africa Governance Index reported a decline in the integrity of elections in Africa during the decade between 2012 and 2021. As Afrobarometer, which conducts surveys on citizens’ perception, reported, one of the consequences of poor-quality elections in Africa is that ‘support for elections has dropped by 8 percentage points across 30 countries’ over the last decade. The poor quality of elections carries consequences for political stability. As the AU Commission Chairperson noted in his opening address to the 37th AU Assembly on 17 February 2024, ‘elections have become, through the extent of their irregularities, factors for deepening crises.’

Beyond the poor quality of elections, another, most notable, manifestation of the growing disenchantment with and backslide in democracy is the resurgence of coups over the past several years on the continent. As established in our policy brief of May 2022 published ahead of the Malabo Summit, ‘until 2021, the trends in the occurrence of coups in Africa is largely characterised by decline, despite its sporadic occurrence in a range of one to two coups per year (in the years when it occurred).’ Prior to 2021, the maximum that Africa experienced a coup since 2000 was in 2003. Since then, there have been a few years (2005, 2008 and 2012) when a maximum of two coups occurred, with several years passing without coups. The persistence of coups since 2020 illustrates reversals in the decline of coups in Africa since the turn of the century.

Unconstitutional Changes of Government (UCGs) 2020-2024

However poor elections and coups are not the only manifestations of the decline in democratic backsliding in Africa. The Mo Ibrahim Africa Governance Index ten-year trends (2012-2021) show that there has been deterioration in Africa in terms of security and the rule of law (from 50.3 to 49.0) as well as in the area of participation, rights, and inclusion (from 47.5 to 46.7). Some of these issues manifest not only in the resort of governments to excessive force to suppress dissent and peaceful protests but also in the continued shrinking of civic space across various parts of the continent. Further manifestations of the crises facing the process of democratisation in Africa include the circumventing or tampering with term limits by incumbent leaders as experienced in recent years in Central African Republic, Cote d’Ivoire, Gabon, Guinea and Togo. As pointed out in the Afrobarometer 2024 report, leaders ‘in Benin, Tunisia, and elsewhere have used a variety of means to subvert the democratic political order, weakening institutional checks on their authority, harassing the political opposition, imposing media blackouts, and even, in the case of Tunisia, suspending Parliament.’ The recurrence and in some instances the exponential increase in corruption and the failure of electoral democracies to address the socio-economic woes of citizens and deliver tangible material dividends to the public constitute additional factors for the democratic backsliding on the continent.

In light of the foregoing, the third set of issues that are of interest to PSC members as they convene tomorrow is the role of relevant AU governance instruments, institutions and processes. Based on the policy debate that the resurgence of coups triggered during the past years, there has been active engagement on the part of the AU and RECs/RMs notably the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on how to arrest the resurgence of coups. Despite such heightened level of policy attention it has garnered, the responses to the occurrence of unconstitutional changes of government (UCG) and the resulting complex political transitions in multiple countries are yet to effectively bear fruit. Yet, one notable institutional development of the policy debate within the framework of the AU has been the operationalisation of the PSC sub-committee on Sanctions, which held its inaugural session in June 2024. In terms of elections, while the regularisation of the PSC session with presentation of the report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission is commendable, both the report and the session may end up being nothing more than performative unless attention is given to initiate and implement targeted policy responses to poor quality elections. Institutionally speaking, one of the issues that are worth reflecting on in tomorrow’s session is how to operate the African Governance Architecture (AGA) in a way that harnesses the roles of the AU bodies with governance mandates that form part of the AGA Platform for engaging in joint analysis and assessment of developments, trends and dynamics in democratic governance, constitutional rule and human rights in Africa. Such joint analysis and assessments are critical not only for leveraging the unique perspectives each of the AGA platform members brings but also for crafting responses that both assign responsibility for each of the AGA platform members to initiate measures in their respective mandates and for presenting to the PSC on measures it can take relevant to its mandate.

The expected outcome will be a Communiqué. The PSC may express concern over the plethora of setbacks facing constitutionalism, democracy and governance in Africa including flawed elections, shrinking civic space, executive excesses and systematic undermining of constitutional processes including term limits and the surge in military coups. The PSC may commend the continuing support for the normative acceptance of regular elections, constitutional systems, the role of media and civil society at national levels and the endorsement of constitutional and democratic norms at the level of the AU and RECs/RMs. The PSC may also express support for the growing popular acceptance and demand for an accountable, corruption-free and responsive system of governance. It may also underscore the need to bridge the growing gap between the demands and expectations of people for a more accountable system of governance and quality democracy, and the poor state of democratic and constitutional performance of states. The PSC may institutionalise its engagement on constitutionalism, democracy and governance into a systematic approach by integrating its focus on this theme into a standing agenda dedicated to the review of and systematic reflections on the implementation of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. In terms of elections, while welcoming the regularisation of the submission to and deliberation on the report of the Chairperson of the Commission on Elections, the PSC may also underscore the need for ensuring that attention is given to initiate and implement targeted policy responses to poor-quality elections. The PSC may reiterate its call to member states to expedite the signature and implementation of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections, and Governance (ACDEG). In terms of the follow-up to the request of its 1061st session for an in-depth analysis of the 2000 Lomé Declaration on unconstitutional changes of government (UCG) and the African Governance Architecture (AGA), the PSC may request the AU Commission to put in place systems to operate the AGA in a way that harnesses the roles of the AU bodies with governance mandate that form part of the AGA Platform for engaging in joint analysis and assessment of developments, trends and dynamics in democratic governance, constitutional rule and human rights in Africa.

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Consideration of Mid-year report of the Chairperson of the Commission on elections in Africa: January to June 2024

Date | 24 July 2024

Tomorrow (25 July), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1224th session to consider the mid-year report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on elections in Africa, covering the period between January and June 2024.

Following the opening statement of the Chairperson of the PSC for the month, Miguel Cesar Domingos Bembe, Permanent Representative of Angola to the AU, Bankole Adeoye, the Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), is expected to present the report. Statements are also expected from the representatives of Member States that organised elections during the reporting period and from the representatives of the Regional Economic Communities/Regional Mechanisms (RECs/RMs) that observed the elections. Despite not deploying election observation to Chad due to violation of relevant PSC decisions and AU norms on non-eligibility of members of the Transitional Military Council (TMC) in elections, it appears that Chad is invited, along with Madagascar, Mauritania, Senegal, South Africa, Togo and The Union of Comoros, to make a statement on the presidential election held on 6 May 2024.

The Chairperson’s mid-year report on elections in Africa is in line with the PSC’s decision at its 424th session of March 2014 to receive regular briefings on national elections in Africa. The last time the Chairperson presented the half-year report was during PSC’s 1194th session held on 24 January 2024, covering elections held between July and December 2023. As with the previous report, tomorrow’s briefing on the Chairperson’s report will provide an update on the electoral process and the conduct of the elections held during the reporting period, while also providing a snapshot of elections planned for the second half of 2024. The report is also expected to highlight emerging governance trends during the period under review, as well as positive practices and areas of concern.

During the first half of 2024, seven Member States organised presidential and parliamentary elections, namely The Union of Comoros, Senegal, Togo, Chad, South Africa (where the AU Commission also deployed a pre-election assessment mission in April), Madagascar, and Mauritania. The AU Commission deployed Election Observation Missions (EOMs) in the elections in all these countries, except the Presidential elections in Chad.

The Presidential and gubernatorial elections of the Union of the Comoros held on 14 January, in which the incumbent was declared to have won the presidential election by 57.2 per cent, saw varying levels of turnout for the two elections held on the same day. The elections were marred by political tension and protests over allegations of irregularities.

On 24 March, Senegal held presidential elections following a turbulent electoral season. Deadly protests erupted following Macky Sall’s decision to postpone the originally scheduled 25 February 2024 election. The Constitutional Council rejected both the law passed by parliament delaying the election until December and the 2 June proposed election date by the National Dialogue Commission. Consequently, Sall’s government was compelled to set a new election date before his term expired on 2 April. The vigilance of the Senegalese youth-led mass movement gave the Constitutional Council the conducive context for it to play its critical role in safeguarding Senegal’s democratic process. Bassirou Diomay Faye from the opposition PASTEF party emerged victorious with 54 per cent of the vote.

On 29 April, Togo convened legislative elections alongside its inaugural regional elections, with a voter turnout of 61.76 per cent, following the adoption of a controversial constitutional amendment that changed the country’s system of government from presidential to a parliamentary system. The ruling party amassed 108 out of the 113 contested seats. The opposition criticised the constitutional reform as an ‘institutional coup’, claiming that this would pave the way for the incumbent President Faure Gnassingbé’s prolonged rule if his party maintained an assembly majority, effectively circumventing previous term limits.

The other election held during the period under review is the presidential election in Chad held on 6 May. The Constitutional Council declared Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, who led the TMC that unconstitutionally seized power following the death of his father Idriss Déby Itno, the winner with 61 percent of the votes.

Déby’s candidacy and eventual victory in the election clearly disregarded the AU’s anti-coup norms and the decision of the PSC on 14 May 2021, which expressly demanded that the chairman and members of the TMC do not take part in the election at the end of the transition. Amani Africa’s ‘Ideas Indaba’ published on 9 April warned that ‘If the PSC is unable to enforce the rule on non-eligibility concerning Chad, it would be the end of any future application of this rule as well. And most immediately, this would also mean that the AU would have no standing to apply this rule for stopping any of the military leaders in the six other countries (Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, Niger, and Sudan) from becoming candidates for elections.’ The invitation of Chad to make a statement during this session without the PSC reaffirming its decision on non-eligibility for election may constitute another instance of the PSC enabling disregard of its own decisions and the applicable AU norms it is meant to safeguard.

On 29 May, South Africa held general elections to elect Members of the National Assembly and Provincial legislators. The election was notably competitive, with the ruling African National Congress (ANC) receiving only 40.18 per cent of the votes, losing its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994. This unprecedented outcome forced the ANC to strike a deal with the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA), which came in second with 22 per cent, and other parties to form a ‘national unity’ government.

Madagascar also convened legislative elections on 29 May. Contrary to last year’s presidential election, which was marred by low voter turnout and boycotts, political actors showed interest in the legislative elections, fielding 473 candidates for the 163 parliamentary seats. The ruling party secured 51.53 per cent of the vote. Mauritania also held its presidential election on 29 June, in which the incumbent President, Mohamed Cheikh El Ghazouani, who is also the current chairperson of the AU, was re-elected with 56 per cent of the vote.

The report is expected to preview ten elections scheduled to take place between July and December 2024: Rwanda, Algeria, Tunisia, Mozambique, Botswana, Guinea Bissau, Namibia, Ghana, South Sudan, and Mauritius. On 15 July, Rwandans elected their President, with President Paul Kagame re-elected to a fourth term in office in a landslide victory, securing a provisional result of 99 per cent of the vote.

In Algeria, President Abdelmadjid TEBBOUNE will be seeking a second term in the upcoming election slated for 7 September. Tunisia will hold its presidential election on 6 October, while in Mozambique, general elections are slated for 9 October, with the ruling party FRELIMO represented by regional governor Daniel Chapo, succeeding President Filipe Nyusi. Botswana’s general election is also set to take place no later than 29 October. The legislative elections in Guinea-Bissau are scheduled for 24 November, a year after President Umaro Sissoco Embaló dissolved the opposition-dominated parliament in December 2023. On 27 November, Namibia will hold presidential and legislative elections, while Ghanaians will elect their new president on 7 December, with President Nana Akufo-Addo stepping down as he completes his second term. Mauritian legislative elections are also expected to take place before the end of this year.

Map: African election calendar 2024

South Sudan’s general elections—scheduled for 22 December, which will be the first since its independence in 2011—are perhaps the most consequential, warranting closer attention from the PSC. Considering the high stakes of these elections to the peace and stability of South Sudan as well as the wider region, the PSC may explore different preventive measures to ensure that the elections do not re-ignite armed confrontations between different factions. It is worth recalling that during its 1219th session, the PSC made important decisions in relation to accompanying South Sudan throughout the electoral season.

The other aspect of the report is expected to provide an overview of the governance trends. On a positive note, the report is likely to highlight that the majority of the elections during the period under review were conducted relatively calmly. Notably, some of the Member States, such as Senegal and South Africa, were able to consolidate the conduct of free and fair elections, with Senegal avoiding the threat of democratic backsliding.

On the other hand, the report is likely to point out the prolonged political transitions in Member States that experienced unconstitutional changes of government as a major issue of concern for the continent’s governance landscape covering not only countries affected by coups but also others such as South Sudan and Libya.

The expected outcome is a communiqué. The PSC may commend Member States for holding their periodic elections in a relatively calm environment and for the consolidation of democracy in some of the countries. The PSC may also take the opportunity to express its dissatisfaction with the participation of the leader of the Transitional Military Council (TMC) of Chad in the 6 May Presidential election in defiance of the PSC’s decision on the non-eligibility of members of the TMC and the AU norm as enshrined in the African Charter on Elections, Democracy and Governance. It may also call on AU member states to expand the civic and political space both to address voter apathy, particularly on the part of young people of voting age and the growing disenchantment with elections on the continent. In relation to countries under political transition, given the complexity of the issue, the PSC may go beyond reiterating the need to strictly adhere to their respective transition agreed timelines, and task the Commission to undertake a comprehensive study with practical strategies on how to expedite the return of constitutional order in these countries in line with relevant AU norms. On upcoming elections, while urging the Commission to continue its support to Member States to hold credible elections, it may particularly emphasise the need to deploy effective mechanisms in relation to the elections in South Sudan, in line with the decisions made at its 1219th session.

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Consideration of Mid-year report of the Chairperson of the Commission on Elections in Africa

Date | 23 January 2024

Tomorrow (24 January), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1194th session to consider the mid-year report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on elections in Africa, covering the period from July to December 2023 and providing an outlook for 2024.

Following the opening statement of the Chairperson of the PSC for the month, Amma A. Twum-Amoah, Permanent Representative of Ghana to the AU, Bankole Adeoye, the Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), is expected to present the half year report. Statements are also expected from the representatives of Member States that organized elections in the second half of 2023, namely Zimbabwe, Eswatini, Liberia, Madagascar, Egypt, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

The Chairperson’s mid-year report on elections in Africa is in line with the PSC’s decision at its 424th session of March 2014 to receive regular briefings on national elections in Africa. The last time the Chairperson presented the half year report was during PSC’s 1165th session held on 31 July 2023, capturing the outcomes of elections organized between January and June 2023. As a continuation of this update, tomorrow’s briefing report will cover elections conducted between July and December 2023 while providing a snapshot of elections held in or planned for the first half of 2024. The report is also expected to shed light on electoral and political governance trends observed during the period under review. In addition, PSC may follow up on the initiatives on the Annual Report on Elections in Africa and the Documentary on AU Election Observation Mission (AUEOM), both scheduled for publication and dissemination in the third quarter of 2023.

In the latter part of 2023, seven Member States—Zimbabwe, Gabon, Eswatini, Liberia, Madagascar, Egypt, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)—conducted presidential and/or parliamentary elections. AU deployed election observers to all these countries, except Gabon, to assess the electoral process. During the review period, incumbents emerged victorious in all presidential elections with the exception of Liberia, which witnessed a peaceful transfer of power. The re-election of President Emmerson Mnangagwa of Zimbabwe, President Andry Rajoelina of Madagascar, and President Félix Tshisekedi of DRC also marks their final term in office as stipulated by their respective constitutions.

Despite the generally calm atmosphere in which the elections were conducted, the outcomes in the majority of cases turned out to be highly contentious, indicating a worrisome trend regarding the credibility of the electoral process in the continent. In some cases, such as in Madagascar and the Comoros, elections were marred by boycotts and low turnout.

On 23 August 2023, Zimbabwe held Harmonized elections, covering both presidential and national assembly. The incumbent President, Emmerson Mnangagwa of the ruling ZANU-PF party, was declared winner with 52.6% of the vote against 44% for his main contender, Nelson Chamisa of Citizens’ Coalition for Change (CCC), according to official results announced by the Electoral Commission. Chamisa rejected the result, alleging irregularities. A preliminary statement by AU-COMESA Election Observation Mission (EOM) concluded that the elections were conducted, in a ‘generally peaceful and transparent manner despite logistical challenges’. The SADC Electoral Observation Mission (SEOM), however, expressed reservations, stating that ‘Some aspects of the Harmonized Elections fell short of the requirements of the Constitution of Zimbabwe, the Electoral Act, and the SADC Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections (2021)’.

The 26 August general elections in Gabon took a dramatic turn when the military seized power just hours after Gabon’s election commission announced incumbent Ali Bongo’s victory for a third term as a President in a disputed elections, with a reported 64.27% of the vote. Held without the presence of international observers, including from AU, the elections and its outcome were deeply contested. As a form of a palace or a family coup, the military in using the election outcome to intervene confined itself to removing Bongo. In avoiding the option of facilitating proper auditing of the election and make course correction paving the way for democratic change, the junta ensured continuity of the old regime minus Bongo. According to the tentative timetable of the two-year transition period the junta unveiled, elections are anticipated to take place in August 2025, while a new constitution will be put to a referendum in December 2024.

Meanwhile, the Kingdom of Eswatini held ‘peaceful’ parliamentary election on 29 September 2023. This election took place against the backdrop of the violent pro-democracy protests that had shaken the country in 2021/2022 and the brutal murder of prominent human rights activist and lawyer Thulani Maseko. It is to be recalled that SADC issued statement calling for independent investigation into Maseko’s killing.

In November, voters in Liberia and Madagascar went to the polls to elect their leaders. Liberia witnessed yet another successful election after the incumbent President George Weah conceded defeat to opposition leader Joseph Boakai and hence paving the way for another democratic and peaceful transfer of power. Boakai emerged triumphant over Weah in a closely contested two-round race that saw a record voter turnout, securing 50.64% of the vote against Weah’s 49.36%.

In Madagascar’s Presidential election, the incumbent President Andry Rajoelina was declared winner with 59% of the vote in an election marked by opposition boycott and low turnout. Ten out of the 13 Presidential candidates reportedly boycotted the election due to concerns over the credibility of the election and controversy regarding the validity of Rajoelina’s candidacy due to questions surrounding his nationality.

The other high stake election during the review period was the 20 December general elections in DRC. The incumbent President Félix Tshisekedi has been declared winner in a landslide victory – a result rejected by the opposition and challenged by local independent observers but upheld by the constitutional court. Domestic and international missions highlighted significant logistical challenges, which compelled the electoral commission to extend the voting for an additional day. Despite the various logistical challenges and the irregularities surrounding the elections, regional bodies and the AU issued their congratulatory message to President Tshisekedi.

Earlier on 10-12 December, Egypt also conducted a presidential election in which the incumbent President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi emerged victorious, with an overwhelming 89.6% of the vote, as announced by the National Elections Authority in an election lacked serious competition and held in an environment in which the incumbent’s victory was almost a foregone conclusion. The preliminary statement of the joint AU-COMESA election observation mission recommended to Egypt to ‘encourage all political parties to actively participate in the electoral process and ensure adequate representation at polling stations to enhance transparency and credibility.’

In 2024, Africa is set to experience a jam-packed election calendar, with over 20 Presidential and/or parliamentary elections anticipated to unfold. The electoral processes in the Comoros and Senegal are likely to grab the attention of Members of the PSC. The first election of the year took place in the Comoros, featuring both presidential and gubernatorial contests on 14 January. The electoral commission announced the re-election of the incumbent President Azali Assoumani, who is also current chairperson of the AU, securing 62.97% of the vote. Despite this announcement, the opposition has vehemently rejected the election results, alleging fraud and calling for the annulment of the outcome. Authorities reported a shocking low voter turnout of 16%, a figure contested by the opposition, who view the significant disparity in reported turnout between the presidential and regional governor contests, conducted simultaneously, as indicative of electoral irregularities. This development has led to heightened tensions and violent protests in the capital Moroni and elsewhere, prompting the government to impose curfew on 18 January.

Senegal’s presidential election, slated for 25 February, is highly anticipated as it unfolds against the backdrop of the tumultuous final years of President Macky Sall’s tenure, characterized by deadly protests over the conviction of prominent opposition leader, Ousmane Sonko, and speculation that President Sall might seek a third term or is bent on playing king maker. In July, Sall ruled out seeking re-election. Yet, the political saga surrounding Sonko and most notably the extraordinary decision of dissolving Sonko’s political party have casted long shadow over the fairness of the electoral context.

Between May and August, South Africa is poised to hold general elections, anticipated to be the most fiercely contested in the nation’s democratic history. The Presidential election in Mauritania, scheduled for 22 June, is also interesting to watch, with President Mohamed Ould Cheikh Ghazouani vying for re-election in his final term amid a resounding victory for his EI Insaf ruling party in the parliamentary election of May 2023. Togo is also expected to organize its legislative elections within the first half of the year.

The expected outcome is a communiqué. PSC is expected to adopt the report of the chairperson of the commission on Elections in Africa for the period of July-December 2023 and the outlook for first half of 2024. It is also expected to congratulate those Member States that organized elections during the review period, with a particular mention of Liberia for both the relatively credible elections and the concession of defeat by the incumbent that paved the way for peaceful transfer of power. However, it may also express its concerns over persistent challenges faced by African elections, notably election boycotts, low voter turnouts, and controversies arising from the outcomes of elections, which are detrimental to peace, security, and governance of the continent. In this context, the PSC may take the opportunity to address the escalating tension in the Comoros subsequent to the announcement of election results, as well as election disputes in DRC. As majority of Member States currently undergoing political transitions are poised to undertake elections this year, as per the agreed timelines, PSC may consider operationalizing effective mechanisms to enhance its engagement with these countries and monitor progress towards the organization of the elections, collaborating closely with relevant regional mechanisms. In relation to constitutional manipulation, PSC may also reiterate the importance of the AU finalizing and adopting the guidelines on the amendment of constitutions in Africa, which would serve as a framework to ensure that constitutional amendment processes adhere to formal rules and procedures, ensuring that such amendments reflect national consensus.

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Consideration of Mid-year report of the Chairperson of the Commission on Elections in Africa

Date | 31 July 2023

Tomorrow (31 July), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1165th session to consider the mid-year report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on elections in Africa as one of its agenda items.

The session opens with the opening remarks of the Permanent Representative of Senegal to the AU and the Chairperson of the PSC for the month of July, Mohamed Lamine Thiaw. The Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye, is expected to present the half year report. The representatives of Member States that held elections in the first half of 2023, namely Benin, Djibouti, Guinea Bissau, Mauritania, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone are expected to make statements.

The Chairperson’s mid-year report on elections in Africa is in line with the PSC’s decision at its 424th session of March 2014 to receive regular briefings on national elections in Africa. The last time the Chairperson presented the half year report was during PSC’s 1132nd session in January of this year, covering elections conducted between July and December 2022 and outlooks for 2023. Tomorrow’s briefing is expected to provide updates on the outcomes of elections conducted in the first half of 2023 (January to June) and preview of upcoming elections that are expected to take place in the second half of 2023. It is also expected to reflect on some of the key trends observed in the continent’s electoral and political governance during the period under review.

The review of elections that took place during the last six months will cover the six elections that were organized during this period. Nigeria and Sierra Leone held general elections while Benin, Djibouti, Mauritania, and Guinea Bissau organized parliamentary elections. AU deployed election observers in all these countries except Benin to assess the electoral process.

In Benin’s parliamentary election, which was held on 8 January, the opposition won 28 seats in the 109-seat parliament. This marked the return of the opposition into the parliament after a four-year of absence, which bodes well to the country’s democratic trajectory. On 24 February, Djibouti held its parliamentary election with the ruling coalition amassing 94 percent of the vote. AU’s observers characterized the election as ‘effective, peaceful and orderly’, an election which the main opposition boycotted calling it a ‘sham’.

The most anticipated election during the review period was perhaps the 25 February Nigeria’s general election. According to AU’s preliminary statement, the election was ‘crucial in consolidating democracy, peace and stability’ in the country despite that the election was held in a challenging economic, operational and security context. Bola Tinubu of the ruling All progressives Congress (APC) party was declared winner, though the two main opposition leaders (Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party and Peter Obi of the Labour Party) filed separate petitions to challenge the outcome of the election citing irregularities. With an overall turnout of 29 % of voters, it is reported that it is the lowest in Nigeria’s democratic history. While the introduction of digital technologies for voter verification and electronic transmission of result forms was welcomed as a critical measure to enhance credibility of the electoral process, it did not function as promised by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). According to the report of one of the local observer groups, together with poor communication by INEC, incidents of violence meant to influence the electoral process and allegations of manipulation during collation of votes, the failure of technology reduced from the level of confidence that the elections were expected to garner from the public.

In the parliamentary and local elections held on 13 May in Mauritania, the EI Insaf ruling party registered a sweeping victory, grabbing 107 of 176 seats in the National Assembly, despite complaint from the opposition about rigging. The country is expected to conduct a presidential election in the coming year.

In Guinea Bissau, a coalition of opposition groups, led by the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), won majority of the seats in the parliament, picking up 54 of the 102 seats. The conduct of the 4 June parliamentary election in a peaceful climate and the concession of defeat by the ruling party contributes positively to the democratization process in a country that has been experiencing political turmoil, including the February 2022 coup attempt and the dissolution of the parliament in May of the same year, and the challenge of organized crime involving drug trafficking.

On the other hand, Sierra Leone’s 24 June multi-tier elections (presidential, parliamentary, and local elections) were marred by ‘politically motivated violence spurred by the general mistrust between the two main political parties’, the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) and the All-People’s Congress (APC), according to AU observers. The incumbent President Julius Maada Bio of the SLPP was declared winner with more than 56 percent of the votes – a result rejected by the main rival Samura Kamara. Claiming ‘glaring irregularities’, APC announced its decision not to participate in the governance structure of the country in addition to calling for a rerun of the election.

Map: 2023 African election calendar
Map: 2023 African election calendar

In relation to election outlook for the second half of 2023, Zimbabwe, Gabon, Madagascar, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Liberia, Togo, and Eswatini are among the countries that are expected to organize presidential and/or parliamentary elections. Although Libyan Government indicated readiness to organize general elections (originally scheduled for December 2021) in 2023, it is not clear whether this could happen. Rwanda’s parliamentary election, which was slated for September 2023 is now rescheduled for next year.

Zimbabweans will go to the polls on 23 August to elect their president and members of both houses of the Parliament, with 2 October scheduled for runoff if required. The incumbent President Emmerson Mnangagwa of the ruling ZANU-PF party will face his main contender, Nelson Chamisa of Citizens’ Coalition for Change (CCC), who finished second during the 2018 presidential election. Ensuring even playing field for political parties and creating a peaceful environment will remain key for credible elections in Zimbabwe.

26 August is set for Gabon’s general elections where the incumbent President Ali Bongo will seek a third term, facing 14 other presidential candidates. It is to be recalled that in April of this year, the parliament voted to amend the constitution that reduced presidential term from seven to five years and turned the presidential election into a single round.

Madagascar will conduct the first round of the presidential election on 9 November while the second round is expected to take place on 20 December, if required.

DRC is also gearing up for the December 2023 general elections amidst extremely difficult security context, which indeed remains one of the biggest threats to the credibility of the polls. As elections campaign are expected to heat up in the coming months, it is also important to ensure that such campaigns do not escalate tension with neighbouring countries, notably Rwanda. Liberians will also head to the polls in October to elect their next president as well as members of their parliament.

Togo and Eswatini will hold their parliamentary elections in the second half of the year. The timeline for Togo’s election is not confirmed yet, but Eswatini is set to conduct its election in September, which will be interesting to watch as it is going to take place at the backdrop of rising political tension.

Meanwhile, Mali organized a constitutional referendum on 18 June, which was approved overwhelmingly with 97 percent of the vote. The referendum is considered as a critical step towards the 24 February 2024 election and a return to civilian rule, but some critics raises their concern that the new constitution strengthens the role of the President. Although Mali slatted October and November 2023 for the first and second rounds of parliamentary elections, it appears that the timelines are likely to be revised. On the other hand, CAR went ahead with the controversial constitutional referendum on 30 July while suspending the preparations for local elections (the first since 1988), initially scheduled for July, until September of this year. If approved, the new constitution will remove the two-term limit and clear the deck for the incumbent President Faustin Touadera to seek re-election in 2025 for a third-term. This requires the attention of the PSC as the third term bid through contested amendment of constitutional clause on presidential term limits is contrary to the position the AU seeks to advance on third termism as outlined in the Accra Declaration and may trigger instability and worsen the already fragile situation in this country.

The expected outcome of the session is a communique. PSC is expected to adopt the report of the chairperson of the Commission on Elections in Africa for the period of January-June 2023 and the outlook for second half of the year (July-December 2023). It may congratulate those Member States that successfully conducted elections during the first half of the year while urging them to work on aspects of the electoral process that led to contestations. With respect to AU’s support to Member States, it may urge the Commission to regularly deploy its initiative of the ‘Return Visit’ to make sure that the recommendations of its election observer missions are implemented. In relation to those Member States preparing to conduct their elections in the second half of the year, PSC may urge them to put their utmost efforts towards ensuring the conduct of credible elections in accordance with the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. In light of what transpired in Niger, PSC may take the opportunity to strongly condemn the coup in the country and echo the call of the Chairperson of the AU Commission for the ‘immediate and unconditional return of the felon soldiers to their barracks’. PSC may also reiterate its request for the Commission to expedite the operationalization of the PSC Sub-Committee on Sanctions pursuant to the Declaration adopted by the 16th Extraordinary Session of the AU Summit held in May 2022 in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea. As constitutional manipulations have continued to extend term limits, PSC may find it necessary to re-emphasize the need for the AU to finalize and adopt the AU guidelines on the amendment of constitutions in Africa to guide constitutional amendment processes adhere to formal rules and procedures and ensure that such amendments are outcomes of national consensus.

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Consideration of the Half Year Report on Elections in Africa: July to December 2022 and outlook for 2023

Date | 20 January 2023

Tomorrow (20 January), African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will convene its 1132nd session to consider AU Commission Chairperson’s half year report on elections in Africa.

The Permanent Representative of Uganda to the AU and the stand-in Chair of the PSC for the month of January, Rebeca Amuge Otengo, will deliver opening remarks while the Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye, is expected to present the half year report. The representatives of Member States that held elections in the second half of 2022 and those that are expected to organize elections in the first half of 2023 are expected to deliver statements. The Regional Economic Communities/Regional Mechanisms (RECs/RMs) are also among the speakers during tomorrow’s session.

The Chairperson’s half year report on elections in Africa is in line with the PSC’s decision at its 424th session of March 2014 to receive quarterly briefings on national elections in Africa. Since then, PSC has been receiving the report on a regular basis – twice a year since recent times. The last time the Chairperson presented his half year report was during PSC’s 1096th session in August last year, covering elections conducted between January and June 2022. Tomorrow’s briefing is expected to provide updates on the outcomes of elections conducted in the second half of 2022 (July to December) as well as preview of upcoming elections that are expected to take place in the first half of 2023. In addition, the report is expected to reflect on some of the key trends observed in the continent’s electoral and political governance.

Between July and December 2022, eight Member States organized presidential and parliamentary elections. Kenya, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea held general elections while Lesotho, Republic of Congo, Sao Tome and Principe, and Senegal organized parliamentary elections. On the other hand, Tunisia organized a constitutional referendum on 25 July 2022, followed by parliamentary elections in December. AU deployed election observation mission (EOM) in all these countries except for Sao Tome and Principe to assess the electoral process. AU’s newly introduced integrated post-election preventive diplomacy and mediation approach was also employed in the context of Kenya’s election, which proved to be successful in Zambia and The Gambia in 2021.

One of the key positive trends likely to be highlighted by the Chairperson’s report is that all the elections during the reporting period were conducted in a relatively calm political atmosphere, evidencing the deepening and consolidation of democracy in the continent. The peaceful transfer of power in Kenya was particularly notable as it turned the page on its violent electoral history. One factor contributing to the peaceful conclusion of Kenya’s hotly anticipated Presidential election, held on 9 August, was the major shift in terms of candidates’ mobilization strategies where campaigns were largely issue-centred as opposed to ethnicity. Opposition leader Raila Odinga’s recourse to the judiciary over election dispute and his subsequent acceptance of the decision of the court that upheld William Ruto’s Presidential victory is not only a sign of political maturity but also contributed to stave off electoral violence in the country.

Majority of the elections under the reporting period were competitive. Oppositions made significant gains for instance in the parliamentary elections in Angola, Senegal, Sao Tome and Principe. Angola’s MPLA ruling party was declared winner in the most hotly contested 24 August general elections, but opposition (UNITA) received 44 percent of the vote to MPLA’s 51 percent. In Senegal, the President’s coalition narrowly won the 31 July legislative election with 82 seats while the opposition gained 80 seats of the national assembly’s 165. The opposition Independent Democratic Action (ADI) won Sao Tome and Principe’s 26 September legislative elections. Similarly, the newly formed opposition Revolution for Prosperity Party (RFP) won the 7 October parliamentary elections taking 56 of the 80 seats. Yet, in some context, there is a long way to go to make the elections competitive as observed in the case of Equatorial Guinea where the incumbent President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo was re-elected for a sixth term with nearly 95 percent vote.

Some Member States also leveraged technology for voter registration and transmission of results, which indeed contributed to enhance the transparency and integrity of the electoral process. A case in point is Kenya’s 9 August Presidential elections, which introduced additional voter identity verification features in the Kenyan Integrated Election Management Systems (KIEMS) kit to provide for biometric and alphanumeric identification of voters on election day. This change provided the capture and transmission of images of the duly completed presidential election results forms from the polling station to the National Tallying Centre, which made provisional results publicly accessible. Similarly, Nigeria is prepared to deploy technology from voter registration to voter accreditation and result management in the upcoming general elections, boosting public confidence over the credibility of the election. Angola also introduced diaspora voting for the first time, highlighting the importance of ensuring the participation of citizens living abroad in democratic processes.

Africa’s electoral landscape has registered considerable progress, but challenges remain. One of the main challenges observed during the reporting period has been low voter turnout as starkly manifested in the context of Tunisia’s constitutional referendum and parliamentary elections. The election in Tunisia may particularly interest members of the PSC considering the growing concern over the risk of democratic backsliding in that country. The new constitution that was put forward by the President Kais Saied for referendum is believed to provide sweeping power to the President while weakening the legislative and judicial branches of the government. The constitution was approved overwhelmingly but nearly 70 percent of Tunisians did not vote. Even more striking was the 17 December parliamentary elections (first round), witnessing a historical low turnout of 11.22 percent, according to the official figures. Sources indicate that this figure is perhaps the second lowest voter turnout ever recorded worldwide in an election since 1945. The second round is set for 20 January, but the low turnout in the first round could be seen as the harbinger of looming political crisis.

While many African countries are organizing periodic elections in accordance with their constitutions, some countries particularly those that are in political transitions have also failed to meet agreed timelines. Mali, South Sudan, and Sudan were supposed to organize elections in 2023 and complete transitions, but that could not materialize. After missing the planned 24 December 2021 general elections, agreement on alternative election timeframe is not in sight for Libyans as political impasse continued. Guinea Bissau also failed to organize its legislative elections on 18 December 2022, further complicating the political condition of the country.

In relation to election outlook for 2023, Several Member States are expected to hold presidential and/or parliamentary elections. Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Gabon are set to elect their Presidents while countries like Eswatini, Mauritania, Guinea Bissau, Djibouti, Benin are expected to conduct parliamentary elections. On the other hand, Mali is scheduled to organize constitutional referendum this March and its legislative elections around October 2023 to pave the way for the February 2024 Presidential election. Most of these countries are yet to announce the exact date for the elections. However, six of them, namely Nigeria, Benin, Djibouti, Mauritania, Guinea Bissau, and Sierra Leone will hold elections in the first half of 2023. The Chairperson’s half year report is likely to focus on Nigeria’s Presidential election as it is going to happen in few weeks – on 25 February. Bankole is expected to brief members of the PSC about Nigeria’s state of preparedness for the elections based on the report of the Special Pre-electoral Political Mission led by Phumzile MlamboNgcuka, former Deputy President of South Africa and Member of the AU Panel of the Wise, which was deployed by the Commission in November 2022.

Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari will stepdown after two-terms in office, further consolidating Nigeria’s democracy and setting good lessons to the region that is experiencing resurgence of coup and third-termism. Election preparation seems on the right track with a surge of new voter registrations, particularly among the youth. In a major shift to previous elections, the upcoming election is also witnessing credible presidential candidates outside the two parties that have been ruling Nigeria since the restoration of democratic rule in 1999. But security threats and the use of technology in some parts of the country are likely to remain key challenges.

The expected outcome is a communique. PSC may congratulate those Member States that successfully conducted peaceful elections during the reporting period. It may particularly welcome the peaceful transfer of power in Kenya. PSC may take note of the evolving culture of holding of regular elections in the continent. PSC is also expected to express its concern over persisting challenges, weakening confidence in elections in delivering democratic change as evidenced, for example, by low voter turnout. PSC may highlight the imperative of addressing such challenge, particularly through undertaking inclusive national dialogue. It may call on those member States preparing to conduct their elections in the second half of the year, to put their utmost efforts towards ensuring the conduct of peaceful, fair, credible, and transparent elections in accordance with the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. PSC may commend the AU Commission for its continued efforts in supporting Member States to hold credible elections, including through the deployment of observation mission. It may also encourage Member States to implement the recommendations provided by the election observation missions to deepen democratic elections in their respective jurisdictions. In that relation, PSC may find it important to remind AU Commission on the need to continue the practice of what is called a ‘Return Visit’ of the election observer team to the country where they observed elections to follow up on the implementation of AUEOM recommendations, which was first employed in November 2021 in the context of Zambia.

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Consideration of the Report of the Chairperson of the Commission on Elections in Africa

Date | 02 August 2022

Tomorrow (02 August), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is expected to convene its 1096th session to consider the report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on elections in Africa conducted during the first half of 2022.

Following opening remarks of the Permanent Representative of The Gambia to the AU and Chairperson of the PSC for the month, Jainaba Jagne, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye is expected to make a statement and introduce the report.

The Chairperson’s report on elections in Africa is regularly submitted to the PSC in line with the Council’s request made at its 424th session to receive quarterly briefings on national elections conducted in the continent. In recent years, the report is presented twice a year. Following the report of the Chairperson on elections conducted during the second half of 2021 (July to December 2021), which was considered by the PSC at its 1062nd session convened on 31 January 2022, tomorrow’s briefing is expected to provide updates on elections conducted from January to June 2022 as well as preview of those expected to take place during the second half of 2022.

In the first half of 2022, a major milestone achieved in the conduct of elections in Africa was the finalisation of Somalia’s much delayed parliamentary and presidential elections on 15 May. It is to be recalled that Somalia’s general elections were originally agreed to commence in December 2020 but was not honoured as the then incumbent President sought to extend his term of office plunging the country into a constitutional and political turmoil. On 14 April 2022, senators and members of the parliament were sworn in and on 15 May, they voted for the president and Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected as the new president of Somalia, bringing to conclusion the protracted electoral process. The peaceful handover of power from outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo to the elected incoming President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was not only a great achievement for Somalia, but also an exemplary record of democratic practice for the Horn of Africa region where such a tradition is in short supply. Despite its successful completion, the election was unfortunately marred by procedural irregularities and incidents of violence which resulted in multiple civilian casualties. Moreover, the election modality of “one-person-one-vote” incorporated in the provisional constitution could not be implemented in the election of the members of the House of the People. The 30% quota for women in parliament agreed in the September 2020 Electoral Agreement could also not be met with women constituting only 21% of elected members of the parliament. This is a notable decrease from the 24% achieved in the 2016 election, suggesting a concerning regression in efforts aimed at increasing women’s meaningful engagement and participation in politics.

The election of members of the National Assembly of The Gambia was another one of the elections that was anticipated to take place in the first half of 2022. In December 2021, Gambia successfully completed its first Presidential election since the defeat of former President Yahya Jammeh in 2016. As a test for democratic transition, the completion of the presidential election, preceded by political wrangling among various political parties and on the record of the incumbent, was an important milestone for the country. The National Assembly election was conducted against the backdrop of the presidential election and was successfully concluded on 09 April 2022. According to the statement issued by the AU Election Observation Mission (AUEOM) to Gambia on its preliminary findings, the election was conducted under a peaceful atmosphere and in an orderly manner, a standard that is becoming common in describing elections in Africa but qualitatively lower than the standards of ‘free, fair and credible’. A shortcoming noted by the AUEOM was the delay experienced in legal reforms to address gaps in the legal framework for elections, including promotion of women and youth participation through affirmative action. Indeed, the lack of such reforms has contributed to the very low participation of women – out of the 246 candidates nominated to occupy seats in the National Assembly, only 19 were women.

Mali was also among the member States anticipated in the previous report of the AU Commission Chairperson, to conduct general elections during the first half of 2022. In line with the 2020 Transition Charter of Mali, the country was set to conduct general elections on 27 February 2022, putting an end to the transition period. As highlighted in the Chairperson’s previous report, the new political dynamics, following the May 2021 coup, made the 2022 elections timeline infeasible. Based on the recommendations made at the “National Refoundation Conference”, Mali’s transition authorities decided to extend the transition period for over three years of additional period, provoking imposition of sanctions by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). After continuous diplomatic efforts and engagements between Mali’s transition leaders and ECOWAS Mediator for Mali, Goodluck Jonathan, Mali adopted a new transition timetable on 01 July which adjusts the duration of the transition to be 24 months, starting from 29 March 2022. At its 61st Ordinary Session which took place on 3 July 2022, ECOWAS lifted the economic and financial sanctions it imposed against Mali, having regard to the new transition calendar. It did however maintain Mali’s suspension from all ECOWAS decision-making bodies as well as individual sanctions imposed against specific groups and personalities.

During the second half of 2022, three key AU member States are expected to conduct elections – Angola, Kenya and Senegal. Angola is set to have its presidential and legislative elections on 24 August, with reports indicating registration of over 14 million voters expected to head to the polls. President João Lourenço, who will again be running for president, and his party, People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), will be confronting a newly formed opposition coalition, the United Patriotic Front which is led by Costa Junior of the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA).

Kenya’s general elections are scheduled to take place on 09 August. While the incumbent president Uhuru Kenyatta is standing down after his two terms in office and setting a good example against third-termism for the rest of the continent, the contest between Deputy President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga – now backed by current President Kenyatta – is already creating much tension. Given the country’s recent history of highly contested polls and election violence, the forthcoming elections will be among those that will require close monitoring by relevant actors including the AU. In that spirit, the AU, along with the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the East African Community (EAC), has already deployed a joint high-level pre-election assessment mission to Kenya from 14 to 21 May 2022. Following the invitation by the Kenyan Government, the AU will also be deploying an international election expert mission to observe the general elections.

Following the local elections which took place on 27 January, Senegal’s parliamentary elections were just concluded successfully on 31 July, paving the way for the 2024 presidential election. In the local elections, the presidential party conceded defeat in the capital city, Dakar as well as the southern city of Ziguinchor and confronted tougher competition at the parliamentary elections with the key opposition coalition parties having forged a deal to unite and join forces ahead of the elections. Reportedly, about 7 million voters participated in the parliamentary elections to elect 165 representatives in the National Assembly. A short-term EOM was also deployed by the AU to observe the elections and the findings of the mission are expected to feature in the report of the AU Commission Chairperson for the upcoming reporting period (second half of 2022).

The peaceful as well as credible and transparent conduct of the elections in these three countries will be critical in consolidating electoral processes and advancing democracy in the continent.

Further to the three member States, Libya and Chad are also among those States with 2022 set as their timeline for conducting elections. Libya’s general elections postponed from December 2021 still remain indefinitely postponed despite some proposals having been made with recommended timelines within 2022. The political crisis involving the contestation between the interim Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh and Fathi Bashagha, appointed Prime Minister by the east-based House of Representatives, punctuated by armed confrontations, continues to undermine progress. It seems most unlikely for the country to hold the elections in 2022. Chad is also expected to conduct national elections in September. However, having regard to the slow transition process, including the delays experienced in setting the date for national dialogue – finally announced to commence on 20 August – which is expected to serve as a precursor for the elections, there is a high likelihood for the transition timeline to be extended.

In addition to reflecting on elections in these and other relevant member States, the Chairperson’s report is also expected to highlight some of the key trends observed in the continent’s electoral and political governance. In that regard, tomorrow’s session is expected to pay attention to the democratic backslide recently experienced due to unconstitutional changes of government in multiple member States and the unique challenges of conducting elections in the context of countries in transition. Election related violence, electoral malpractice, and high political tensions could also be some of the concerning trends that may be highlighted.

The expected outcome of the session is a Communiqué. Council may congratulate those member States that peacefully finalised their elections during the reporting period and encourage their fortified efforts towards ensuring democratic governance in their respective countries and the continent at large. It may also note the conclusion of the protracted elections in Somalia and welcome the peaceful transfer of power from the incumbent to the newly elected President, setting an example for the Horn of Africa region. It may call on those member States preparing to conduct their elections in the second half of the year, to put their utmost efforts towards ensuring the conduct of peaceful, fair, credible and transparent elections in accordance with the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. It may also urge political parties and independent election candidates to make full use of all available legal channels to settle any election disputes that may arise and to refrain from any recourse to election-related violence and to this end urge national electoral bodies and dispute settlement mechanisms to ensure that they abide by and uphold the highest standards to safeguard the integrity of electoral processes and afford all parties reliable and trustworthy avenues for dispute settlement. Council may further commend the AU Commission for the support provided to member States which conducted elections during the reporting period and encourage its further engagement and provision of support to those member States currently preparing to organise elections during the next reporting period.

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Elections in Africa

Date | 31 January, 2022

Tomorrow (31 January), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) is set to convene its 1062nd session to consider among its agenda items, the report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on elections in Africa conducted during the second half of 2021 (July to December 2021).

Following opening remarks by Permanent Representative of Ghana to the AU and Chairperson of the PSC for the month, Amma Adomaa Twum-Amoah, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), Bankole Adeoye is expected to make a statement. Representatives of AU member States which conducted elections during the reporting period are also expected to deliver statements.

In line with the request made at its 424th meeting to receive quarterly briefings on national elections conducted in Africa, tomorrow’s session is expected to provide updates on elections held in the continent during the second half of 2021 and provide preview of those expected to take place in 2022. The session will follow the previous briefing presented to the Council at its 1034th session where the outcomes of elections held during the period from January to June 2021 were discussed.

The countries that held elections during the reporting period on which the report of the Chairperson is expected to provide update are Cape Verde, Central African Republic (CAR), Ethiopia, Morocco, Sao Tome and Principe, The Gambia and Zambia. Only in Sao Tome and Principe, where the first round of the presidential elections could not secure a majority vote for any of the candidates, was a second round of elections were held. AU election observer mission was deployed to nearly all of these member States. During the reporting period, in addition to the deployment of short-term election observations the AU has also contributed through the provision of technical and financial support to election management bodies and other relevant actors (in The Gambia and Somalia); undertaking multidimensional needs assessment missions (to Chad, Mali and The Gambia) and deployment of preventive diplomacy missions (to Zambia and The Gambia) as indicated in the Chairperson’s report.

Somalia and Libya were the other two AU member States that were scheduled to organise and conduct both presidential and parliamentary elections in the second half of 2021. While Somalia was able to complete the election for members of the upper house of parliament (the House of the People) by mid-November 2021, the election of members of the lower house, who will in turn be in charge of electing the president jointly with members of the upper house, is still underway. As of 9 January 2022, Somalia’s leaders have reached agreement to complete the ongoing election of lower house members of parliament by 25 February 2022.

Following the signing of the 2020 Ceasefire Agreement, one of the main strides achieved in Libya was the determination of a timeline for general elections, which were scheduled to take place on 24 December 2021. A major precondition for the successful organisation of the elections was the completion of the constitutional framework and electoral laws well ahead of the agreed timeline. It is also to be recalled that at its 997th ministerial session, the PSC welcomed the agreement reached to organise the national elections and requested the AU Commission to deploy AU election observation mission to Libya. However, due to the growing disagreement over legal procedures and the delay in the finalization of list of candidates, the general elections were postponed to 2022. With the new proposed date of 24 January becoming untenable to hold elections, after consultations with presidential hopefuls the Special Envoy of the UN Secretary General told reporters that it is very reasonable and possible for Libyans to cast their votes in June 2022.

Chad’s legislative elections, originally scheduled for 13 December 2020 and later postponed for 24 October 2021, were also indefinitely postponed.

Together with the delayed elections in Libya and Somalia, some fourteen AU member states are scheduled to hold presidential and/or parliamentary elections during 2022. Apart from Libya and Somalia, others that also face uncertainties about the timing of elections include Mali and Guinea. Mali’s general elections, which were scheduled for 27 February 2022, may experience delays as the transitional government has recently announced a new electoral roadmap. Given the challenging political and security context, Mali’s transition through the conduct of peaceful and democratic elections will benefit from the AU’s close follow up and timely support including through high-level engagement with relevant Malian stakeholders.

In line with the 6 months’ timetable established by the regional body Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) following Guinea’s military coup of 5 September 2021, Guinea is also expected to conduct general elections in March 2022. While Guinea’s transitional government has finalised the formation of the National Transitional Council (CNT) – the body that determines the electoral calendar, the transitional authorities have already indicated more time may be required for constitutional review and institutional reforms, which makes it unlikely for the elections to be held within the timeline established by ECOWAS.

Some of the other expected elections upcoming in 2022 include the Gambia’s legislative elections which are scheduled to take place in the first half of the year as well as Kenya’s and Angola’s general elections planned for the second half of 2022. As in the past, Kenya’s election is expected to attract particular interest, including in terms of requiring diplomatic measures to ensure that the elections are free from violence and conditions for the acceptance of the outcome of elections by candidates are created.

In addition to elaborating on the elections conducted during the reporting period and providing highlights on upcoming elections, the Chairperson’s report is also expected to capture key emerging trends in Africa’s electoral and political governance. In that regard, the winning of presidential elections in Zambia, Cape Verde, and Sao Tome and Principe, and the securing of majority parliamentary seats in Morocco by opposition parties is a noteworthy progress that may be emphasised in the report. Similarly, a notable decrease in election-related violence, increase in self-funding of elections by respective member States and improved technical management of elections are some of the positive trends that may also be highlighted. As underscored in the Chairperson’s report, there was also a significant increase in voter turnout during the reporting period which is a change from the previous report that indicated about voter apathy as trend that dominated elections in Africa. This development is also indicative of the promotion of popular participation in elections which is an important aspect of democratic processes as stressed by the PSC at its 713th session.

A rather worrying trend that may be reflected is the growing postponement or continuity of postponement of elections in multiple member States despite the commendable commitment to electoral calendars in a number of other member States. Other concerning trends that Council may be briefed about include the increase in hate speech and misinformation, inadequate public services and corruption, intense political tension and instances of election-related violence and resurgence in unconstitutional changes of government.

The expected outcome of the session is a communiqué. The PSC may commend all those countries that concluded their elections without major problems and congratulate countries in which the opposition won elections and smooth transfer of power took place. Council may reaffirm its total rejection of unconstitutional changes of government and express its full support for the democratic will of citizens as expressed through free, fair and credible elections. The PSC may also condemn the extension of term limits through flawed constitutional processes which is also triggering popular discontent and protest and eroding the legitimacy of governments. In light of the increasing misuse of social media and the cyber space to spread misinformation specially during election periods, Council may call on member States to continuously engage their citizens by providing credible and factual information in relation to electoral processes and sensitize their citizens to increase their active and informed participation. It may also call on member States with unduly delayed elections to ensure that political actors commit to agreed electoral calendar and elections are held per such agreement to avoid the uncertainty and crisis of legitimacy that delay in the conduct of elections leads to. The Council may also welcome and commend the efforts of the PAPS Department for introducing to the AU election observation system a gender and youth balanced composition of observer missions, an Experts Advisory Panel as well as better interaction between the AU and Regional Economic Communities/ Regional Mechanisms (RECs/RMs) in monitoring elections. Commending the AU Commission for the support provided to member States which conducted elections during the reporting period, Council may appeal to the Permanent Representatives’ Committee (PRC) to allocate increased financial resources to the AU Commission for the continued support in the continent’s electoral processes.

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